Bavet Forecast Models Compared – ECMWF, GFS, ICON, JMA
Four models compared
| ECMWF IFS | NOAA GFS | DWD ICON | JMA | Agreement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday 05/11 | 32° 6.1mm | 32° 4.6mm | 33° 5.3mm | 34° 9.0mm | 86% ±2.3° · 4/4 |
| Friday 06/11 | 32° 16.8mm | 33° 0.3mm | 34° 1.9mm | 32° 2.1mm | 76% ±1.8° · 3/4 |
| Saturday 07/11 | 31° 5.1mm | 33° 2.7mm | 33° 0.8mm | 33° 1.2mm | 71% ±2.7° · 3/4 |
| Sunday 08/11 | 31° 12.9mm | 33° 3.9mm | 34° 0.9mm | 31° 3.8mm | 68% ±3.2° · 3/4 |
| Monday 09/11 | 32° 1.7mm | 31° 0.3mm | 34° 0.3mm | 35° 11.3mm | 53% ±3.5° · 2/4 |
| Tuesday 10/11 | 31° 6.4mm | 32° 0.6mm | 34° 9.3mm | 34° 0.0mm | 57% ±2.9° · 2/4 |
When the models disagree, confidence in that day is lower.
- ECMWF IFS — ECMWF (EU), 25 km
- NOAA GFS — NOAA (US), 13 km
- DWD ICON — Deutscher Wetterdienst, 11 km
- JMA — Japan Met. Agency, 5 km
Verified accuracy
| Lead time | Mean temperature error | Within 2°C | Rain call correct | Days verified |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 0.98 °C | 76% | 53% | 17 |
| 2d | 1.29 °C | 67% | 53% | 15 |
| 3d | 1.40 °C | 62% | 46% | 13 |
Every day the system stores the forecast it issued, then checks it against observed data. These numbers are the result of that check, not a marketing claim.
2026-08-13 → 2026-09-02 · n=45
Common questions
Will it rain in Bavet today?
No. The chance of rain today is only about 47%.
How hot is it in Bavet today?
Between 24°C and 33°C, with a felt maximum of 39°C.
What is the weather in Bavet tomorrow?
Tomorrow: heavy drizzle, 24–32°C, with a 90% chance of rain.