Hong Kong Forecast Models Compared – ECMWF, GFS, ICON, JMA
Four models compared
| ECMWF IFS | NOAA GFS | DWD ICON | JMA | Agreement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday 05/11 | 29° 3.5mm | 28° 0.0mm | 31° 0.0mm | 29° 0.0mm | 70% ±2.8° · 1/4 |
| Friday 06/11 | 29° 0.5mm | 27° 0.3mm | 29° 0.0mm | 27° 0.1mm | 89% ±1.8° · 0/4 |
| Saturday 07/11 | 27° 1.4mm | 26° 1.0mm | 28° 0.0mm | 28° 0.1mm | 60% ±2.4° · 2/4 |
| Sunday 08/11 | 28° 0.2mm | 26° 0.0mm | 28° 0.0mm | 29° 0.0mm | 85% ±2.4° · 0/4 |
| Monday 09/11 | 26° 0.4mm | 26° 0.0mm | 26° 0.0mm | 28° 0.0mm | 88% ±1.9° · 0/4 |
| Tuesday 10/11 | 25° 0.0mm | 24° 0.0mm | 23° 0.0mm | 25° 0.0mm | 89% ±1.7° · 0/4 |
When the models disagree, confidence in that day is lower.
- ECMWF IFS — ECMWF (EU), 25 km
- NOAA GFS — NOAA (US), 13 km
- DWD ICON — Deutscher Wetterdienst, 11 km
- JMA — Japan Met. Agency, 5 km
Verified accuracy
Not enough data to publish yet. At least 14 verified days are needed.
Every day the system stores the forecast it issued, then checks it against observed data. These numbers are the result of that check, not a marketing claim.
Common questions
Will it rain in Hong Kong today?
No. The chance of rain today is only about 55%.
How hot is it in Hong Kong today?
Between 24°C and 29°C, with a felt maximum of 33°C.
What is the weather in Hong Kong tomorrow?
Tomorrow: drizzle, 22–28°C, with a 58% chance of rain.