Forecast accuracy – verified in public
We store every forecast we publish and check it against observed data. All errors are published here, including the bad ones.
Verified accuracy
| Lead time | Mean temperature error | Within 2°C | Rain call correct | Days verified |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 0.79 °C | 100% | 81% | 21 |
| 2d | 1.10 °C | 95% | 60% | 20 |
| 3d | 1.82 °C | 53% | 68% | 19 |
Every day the system stores the forecast it issued, then checks it against observed data. These numbers are the result of that check, not a marketing claim.
2026-08-13 → 2026-09-02 · n=60
By location
| MAE 1d | ≤2°C | rain | n | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Battambang | 1.16° | 86% | 52% | 21 |
| Bavet | 0.98° | 76% | 53% | 17 |
| Kampong Cham | 0.71° | 95% | 90% | 21 |
| Kampot | 1.55° | 67% | 81% | 21 |
| Kandal | 1.00° | 90% | 52% | 21 |
| Koh Kong | 1.36° | 90% | 100% | 21 |
| Kratie | 0.93° | 88% | 76% | 17 |
| Poipet | 2.25° | 53% | 94% | 17 |
| Preah Sihanouk | 1.83° | 48% | 95% | 21 |
| Siem Reap | 0.89° | 90% | 90% | 21 |
| Takeo | 1.06° | 94% | 65% | 17 |
How scoring works
Every day at 06:00 Phnom Penh time the system records the forecast for 1, 2 and 3 days ahead. That record cannot be edited afterwards.
Once the day has passed, observed values are pulled from the ERA5 archive and the absolute error of the daily high and low is computed.
A rain forecast counts as correct when forecast and observation fall on the same side of the 1 mm/day threshold.
The table only appears once at least 14 days have been verified. Before that the page says so plainly.