Phnom Penh Forecast Models Compared – ECMWF, GFS, ICON, JMA
Four models compared
| ECMWF IFS | NOAA GFS | DWD ICON | JMA | Agreement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday 05/11 | 33° 2.0mm | 32° 1.3mm | 33° 1.9mm | 32° 0.0mm | 84% ±0.6° · 3/4 |
| Friday 06/11 | 32° 3.1mm | 32° 1.6mm | 33° 3.8mm | 33° 6.2mm | 96% ±0.6° · 4/4 |
| Saturday 07/11 | 32° 2.1mm | 32° 6.3mm | 33° 0.1mm | 31° 5.9mm | 76% ±1.9° · 3/4 |
| Sunday 08/11 | 32° 3.3mm | 32° 7.1mm | 33° 0.1mm | 33° 7.0mm | 82% ±0.9° · 3/4 |
| Monday 09/11 | 32° 4.4mm | 32° 2.3mm | 34° 0.3mm | 33° 3.0mm | 76% ±1.9° · 3/4 |
| Tuesday 10/11 | 32° 7.1mm | 30° 0.6mm | 33° 0.0mm | 33° 1.0mm | 57% ±2.9° · 2/4 |
| Wednesday 11/11 | 31° 8.6mm | 31° 4.5mm | 32° 2.2mm | 33° 1.5mm | 87% ±2.1° · 4/4 |
When the models disagree, confidence in that day is lower.
- ECMWF IFS — ECMWF (EU), 25 km
- NOAA GFS — NOAA (US), 13 km
- DWD ICON — Deutscher Wetterdienst, 11 km
- JMA — Japan Met. Agency, 5 km
Verified accuracy
| Lead time | Mean temperature error | Within 2°C | Rain call correct | Days verified |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 0.79 °C | 100% | 81% | 21 |
| 2d | 1.10 °C | 95% | 60% | 20 |
| 3d | 1.82 °C | 53% | 68% | 19 |
Every day the system stores the forecast it issued, then checks it against observed data. These numbers are the result of that check, not a marketing claim.
2026-08-13 → 2026-09-02 · n=60
Common questions
Will it rain in Phnom Penh today?
Yes. Rain is expected around 17:00–00:00, totalling roughly 3.8 mm.
How hot is it in Phnom Penh today?
Between 25°C and 32°C, with a felt maximum of 40°C.
What is the weather in Phnom Penh tomorrow?
Tomorrow: light showers, 25–32°C, with a 61% chance of rain.